So if Purdue's total error over 15 games was +45 points, you'd raise their rating by 3 points. After looping thru all the games, you use the total error (per team) to adjust each team's actual ranking. So you look at each game, totalling the "errors" for each team. Thats one data point that says Purdue is 17 points better than Minnesota. Then you compare the first game "expected outcome" with the actual outcome. So you start with all the teams ranked equally at 100. I used a macro that I had sitting around from a few years back.
I downloaded those into an Excel spreadsheet. Zed Key injury in close loss to Purdue just derailed their season immediately after beating usġ2) Illinois (6-2, 3-5) - 10th at home, 3rd on road, for whatever reason their efficiency numbers are better on the road than at home, but they win more at homeġ3) NU (6-3, 5-2) - 9th at home, 1st on road, defense is about the same either way, but we have the.top offense in the conference on the road(?)ġ4) Minny (0-8, 1-7) - 14th at home, 13th on road, woof.Ĭlick to expand.I found the scores for all the Big Ten games in a nice format. Disappointing we had to deal with Covid/dead legs for the home gameħ) MSU (6-2, 3-5) - 5th at home, 4th on road, defense elite at home, good on roadĨ) Purdue (7-1, 6-3) - 1st at home, 2nd on road, top defense on road but better offense at homeĩ) Rutgers (6-2, 3-5) - 8th at home, 5th on road, injuries are messing with the numbers a bit, but they have best defense at homeġ0) Wisconsin (5-4, 3-5) - 12th at home, 7th on roadġ1) OSU (2-5, 1-8) - 13th at home, 9th on road, they're just bad. Per Torvik, home/road splits in conference are as follows, from most extreme in favor of home to most extreme in favor of road:ġ) Maryland (9-0, 1-7) - 2nd at home, 12th on road, dead last in road offensive efficiency, can we be the first to knock them off at home?Ģ) Nebraska (5-3, 2-7) - 11th at home, 14th on road, dead last in road defensive efficiencyģ) PSU (5-3, 2-6) - 6th at home, 10th on road, glad we get them at homeĤ) Iowa (7-1, 2-7) - 7th at home, 11th on road, best offense by far, worst defense by far at home, mediocre offense, bad D on roadĥ) Indiana (7-1, 3-6) - 3rd at home, 8th on road, offense much worse on roadĦ) Michigan (7-2, 2-5) - 4th at home, 6th on road, should have better record but couldn't close out some road games.
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